Backing into 3rd

Holdem Single Tournament

Seat #3 is the dealer
Seat 3 - ARKYV ($265 in chips)
Seat 5 - SLEWFEET ($8555 in chips)
Seat 8 - DRATTT ($3960 in chips)
Seat 9 - GOGILBERTGO ($720 in chips)
SLEWFEET - Posts small blind $400
DRATTT - Posts big blind $800
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to ARKYV [4h Ks]

[Gilbert curses his luck that the BB will hit him before it hits me]

GOGILBERTGO - All-In $720
ARKYV - Folds
SLEWFEET - Calls $400
DRATTT - Checks
*** FLOP *** [4d 10h Qc]
SLEWFEET - Checks
DRATTT - Checks
*** TURN *** [4d 10h Qc] [3d]
SLEWFEET - Checks
DRATTT - Checks
*** RIVER *** [4d 10h Qc 3d] [4s]
SLEWFEET - Checks
DRATTT - Checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
SLEWFEET - Shows [2h Ac] (One pair, fours)
DRATTT - Mucks
GOGILBERTGO - Mucks

The previous hand, with $400 of my $650 remaining chips forming the small blind, I got dealt 99. Dratt called UTG, so I folded what was surely the best hand preflop rather than throw my remaining $250 into the pot. I thought that hoping Gilbert couldn't survive his forced all-in in 1 of the next 2 hands was a better bet than taking 9s to a showdown 3 handed.

Using an odds calculator, I now figure that if I assume 2 overcards were held against me in a 3 way pot, I'd be 44% to win. 3 overcards instead makes me 40%. Best scenario is they share an overcard, and I'm 54% to win. Not terribly likely though. A few percent lower in all cases if someone is suited. Let's say on average I'm 45%.

What do you figure Gilbert's odds were to survive the next 2 hands? One time in 3? Then if my objective is to finish in the money, I'm 45% to probably do so by calling there with my nines, and 67% to do so by folding them. What were my odds of finishing higher than 3rd if I call and win? I'd have been up to $1950, but paying $1200 in blinds over the next 3 hands. Not great, but I'd have some chance.

Folding the 9s is a real wimpy move. But I'm still thinking it was a good one, all in all. Agree? Disagree?